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Documentation: Social Explorer Projections 2022
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Publisher: Social Explorer
Chapter Contents
Methodology of the Social Explorer Population Projections
3. Methodology
3.1 Information collection
In order to get the most accurate projections results, this method requires the most recent data of the following datasets:
  • American Community Survey 5 year (ACS 5-yr)
  • American Community Survey 1 year (ACS 1-yr)
  • US Census Bureau Population Estimates (USCB)
  • United States Life Tables from National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS)
  • Mortality data (NCHS)
  • Births data (NCHS)
  • Migrations data (USCB)
3.2 Aging a Population into the Future
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The cohort component method takes each age group of the population and ages it over time, using survival rates in the following way:
  1. Collect information distributed by sex and age in 5-year age groups from ACS 1-yr. Since we do not have complete data in ACS 1-yr, we calculate the missing data using USCB, ACS 5-yr and 1-yr.
  2. Multiply the collected data of a given age group by survival rates in order to obtain the population still alive 5 years later. (Man aged 25-29 alive in 5 years would be 30-34 years old).
3.3 Calculating Births
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We calculated birth data by utilizing a number of different approaches. We estimated number of births into the future by using data provided by NCHS.
3.4 Add Migrations
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The next step encompasses the number of migrations. First, we need to calculate migration rates. In order to obtain the number of net migrants, the calculated migration rates are multiplied by the survived population number.
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