Several examples are provided here to demonstrate how different the approximated standard errors of sums can be compared to those derived and published with PRCS microdata. ACS data is used in the examples. However they are applicable to PRCS data as well.
A. Suppose we wish to estimate the total number of males with income below the poverty level in the past 12 months using both state and PUMA level estimates for the state of Wyoming. Part of the collapsed table C17001 is displayed below with estimates and their margins of error in parentheses.
Table A: 2009 Estimates of Males with Income Below Poverty from table C17001: Poverty Status in the Past 12 Months by Sex by Age
Characteristic |
Wyoming |
PUMA 00100 |
PUMA 00200 |
PUMA 00300 |
PUMA 00400 |
Male |
23,001 (3,309) |
5,264 (1,624) |
6,508 (1,395) |
4,364 (1,026) |
6,865 (1,909) |
Under 18 Years Old |
8,479 (1,874) |
2,041 (920) |
2,222 (778) |
1,999 (750) |
2,217 (1,192) |
18 to 64 Years Old |
12,976 (2,076) |
3,004 (1,049) |
3,725 (935) |
2,050 (635) |
4,197 (1,134) |
65 Years and Older |
1546 (500) |
219 (237) |
561 (286) |
315 (173) |
451 (302) |
2009 American FactFinder |
The first way is to sum the three age groups for Wyoming:
Estimate(Male) = 8,479 + 12,976 + 1,546 = 23,001.
The first approximation for the standard error in this case gives us:
A second way is to sum the four PUMA estimates for Male to obtain:
Estimate(Male) = 5,264 + 6,508 + 4,364 + 6,865 = 23,001 as before.
The second approximation for the standard error yields:
Finally, we can sum up all three age groups for all four PUMAs to obtain an estimate based on a total of twelve estimates:
Estimate(Male) = 2,041 + 2,222 + ... + 451 = 23,001
And the third approximated standard error is
However, we do know that the standard error using the published MOE is 3,309 /1.645 = 2,011.6. In this instance, all of the approximations under-estimate the published standard error and should be used with caution.
B. Suppose we wish to estimate the total number of males at the national level using age and citizenship status. The relevant data from table B05003 is displayed in table B below.
Table B: 2009 Estimates of males from B05003: Sex by Age by Citizenship Status
Characteristic |
Estimate |
MOE |
Male |
151,375,321 |
27,279 |
Under 18 Years |
38,146,514 |
24,365 |
Native |
36,747,407 |
31,397 |
Foreign Born |
1,399,107 |
20,177 |
Naturalized U.S. Citizen |
268,445 |
10,289 |
Not a U.S. Citizen |
1,130,662 |
20,228 |
18 Years and Older |
113,228,807 |
23,525 |
Native |
95,384,433 |
70,210 |
Foreign Born |
17,844,374 |
59,750 |
Naturalized U.S. Citizen |
7,507,308 |
39,658 |
Not a U.S. Citizen |
10,337,066 |
65,533 |
2009 American FactFinder |
The estimate and its MOE are actually published. However, if they were not available in the tables, one way of obtaining them would be to add together the number of males under 18 and over 18 to get:
Estimate (Male) = 38,146,514+ 113,223,807 = 151,375,321
And the first approximated standard error is
Another way would be to add up the estimates for the three subcategories (Native, and the two subcategories for Foreign Born: Naturalized U.S. Citizen, and Not a U.S. Citizen), for males under and over 18 years of age. From these six estimates we obtain:
With a second approximated standard error of:
We do know that the standard error using the published margin of error is 27,279 / 1.645 = 16,583.0. With a quick glance, we can see that the ratio of the standard error of the first method to the published-based standard error yields 1.24; an over-estimate of roughly 24%, whereas the second method yields a ratio of 4.07 or an over-estimate of 307%. This is an example of what could happen to the approximate SE when the sum involves a controlled estimate. In this case, it is sex by age.
C. Suppose we are interested in the total number of people aged 65 or older and its standard error. Table C shows some of the estimates for the national level from table B01001 (the estimates in gray were derived for the purpose of this example only).
Table C: Some Estimates from AFF Table B01001: Sex by Age for 2009
Age Category |
Estimate, Male |
MOE, Male |
Estimate, Female |
MOE, Female |
Total |
Estimated MOE, Total |
65 and 66 years old |
2,492,871 |
20,194 |
2,803,516 |
23,327 |
5,296,387 |
30,854 |
67 to 69 years old |
3,029,709 |
18,280 |
3,483,447 |
24,287 |
6,513,225 |
30,398 |
70 to 74 years old |
4,088,428 |
21,588 |
4,927,666 |
26,867 |
9,016,094 |
34,466 |
75 to 79 years old |
3,168,175 |
19,097 |
4,204,401 |
23,024 |
7,372,576 |
29,913 |
80 to 84 years old |
2,258,021 |
17,716 |
3,538,869 |
25,423 |
5,796,890 |
30,987 |
85 years and older |
1,743,971 |
17,991 |
3,767,574 |
19,294 |
5,511,545 |
26,381 |
Total |
16,781,175 |
NA |
22,725,473 |
NA |
39,506,648 |
74,932 |
2009 American FactFinder |
To begin we find the total number of people aged 65 and over by simply adding the totals for males and females to get 16,781,175 + 22,725,542 = 39,506,717. One way we could use is summing males and female for each age category and then using their MOEs to approximate the standard error for the total number of people over 65.
... etc. ...
Now, we calculate for the number of people aged 65 or older to be 39,506,648 using the six derived estimates and approximate the standard error:
For this example the estimate and its MOE are published in table B09017. The total number of people aged 65 or older is 39,506,648 with a margin of error of 20,689. Therefore the published- based standard error is:
SE(39,506,643) = 20,689/1.645 = 12,577.
The approximated standard error, using six derived age group estimates, yields an approximated standard error roughly 3.6 times larger than the published-based standard error.
As a note, there are two additional ways to approximate the standard error of people aged 65 and over in addition to the way used above. The first is to find the published MOEs for the males age 65 and older and of females aged 65 and older separately and then combine to find the approximate standard error for the total. The second is to use all twelve of the published estimates together, that is, all estimates from the male age categories and female age categories, to create the SE for people aged 65 and older. However, in this particular example, the results from all three ways are the same. So no matter which way you use, you will obtain the same approximation for the SE. This is different from the results seen in example A.
D. For an alternative to approximating the standard error for people 65 years and older seen in part C, we could find the estimate and its SE by summing all of the estimate for the ages less than 65 years old and subtracting them from the estimate for the total population. Due to the large number of estimates, Table D does not show all of the age groups. In addition, the estimates in part of the table shaded gray were derived for the purposes of this example only and cannot be found in base table B01001.
Table D: Some Estimates from AFF Table B01001: Sex by Age for 2009:
Age Category |
Estimate, Male |
MOE, Male |
Estimate, Female |
MOE, Female |
Total |
Estimated MOE, Total |
Total Population |
151,375,321 |
27,279 |
155,631,235 |
27,280 |
307,006,556 |
38,579 |
Under 5 years |
10,853,263 |
15,661 |
10,355,944 |
14,707 |
21,209,207 |
21,484 |
5 to 9 years old |
10,273,948 |
43,555 |
9,850,065 |
42,194 |
20,124,013 |
60,641 |
10 to 14 years old |
10,532,166 |
40,051 |
9,985,327 |
39,921 |
20,517,493 |
56,549 |
... |
... |
... |
... |
... |
|
|
62 to 64 years old |
4,282,178 |
25,636 |
4,669,376 |
28,769 |
8,951,554 |
38,534 |
Total for Age 0 to 64 years old |
134,594,146 |
117,166 |
132,905,762 |
117,637 |
267,499,908 |
166,031 |
Total for Age 65 years and older |
16,781,175 |
120,300 |
22,725,473 |
120,758 |
39,506,648 |
170,454 |
2009 American FactFinder |
An estimate for the number of people age 65 and older is equal to the total population minus the population between the ages of zero and 64 years old:
Number of people aged 65 and older: 307,006,556 - 267,499,908 = 39,506,648.
The way to approximate the SE is the same as in part C. First we will sum male and female estimates across each age category and then approximate the MOEs. We will use that information to approximate the standard error for our estimate of interest:
... etc. ...
And the SE for the total number of people aged 65 and older is:
Again, as in Example C, the estimate and its MOE are we published in B09017. The total number of people aged 65 or older is 39,506,648 with a margin of error of 20,689. Therefore the standard error is:
SE(39,506,648) = 20,689 / 1.645 = 12,577.
The approximated standard error using the thirteen derived age group estimates yields a standard error roughly 8.2 times larger than the actual SE.
Data users can mitigate the problems shown in examples A through D to some extent by utilizing a collapsed version of a detailed table (if it is available) which will reduce the number of estimates used in the approximation. These issues may also be avoided by creating estimates and SEs using the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS) or by requesting a custom tabulation, a fee- based service offered under certain conditions by the Census Bureau. More information regarding custom tabulations may be found at
http://www.census.gov/acs/www/data_documentation/custom_tabulations/.