As part of the overall 1960 Decennial Census evaluation program, a Census-Current Population Survey matching project, similar to the 1950 project, was carried out. Among other things, this study permitted an examination of labor force entries on the FOSDIC schedules (see "Collection and processing of data") in the 1960 Census and in the April 1960 CPS for identical persons and the derivation of indices of' net and gross shift, by demographic and other characteristics. The study entailed matching the CPS household to the census household and then determining whether the matched CPS household was in the census 25-percent sample for which labor force and work experience data were collected.
Employment status and work experience data were then tabulated for identical persons as reported by the census and by the CPS and weighted to national totals by the CPS two-stage ratio estimation procedure. Much of the extensive editing for nonreporting and inconsistencies in the 1960 Census was not introduced in the transcribed census match data in these tabulations.
Tables C and D present figures indicating how the CPS and census data from the matched sample correspond to comparable published percentage distributions from the full CPS and census samples. In interpreting differences between the CPS and census data, it is helpful to be aware of possible biases in the matched sample. For example, census data in the matched sample closely resemble the published census data in most categories but have a somewhat higher proportion classified as employed in agriculture.
Tables E and F present indices of gross and net shift for employment status and weeks worked in 1959 items for identical persons. The index of net shift represents the difference between the number found in a particular category in the census and the number found in the CPS expressed as a percentage of the number in the CPS category. (The CPS has been used as the standard for such measures.
2) The index of net shift may be considered as an estimate of the bias of the census data according to the CPS.
Table C. Comparison of Published Labor Force Distributions for the Census and April CPS with Their Respective "Match" Study Distributions, By Sex: 1960
(Civilian noninstitutional population)
Employment status and sex |
1960 Census |
April 1960 CPS |
Published data (25-percent sample) |
Census CPS match (matched persons1) |
Published data |
Census CPS match (matched persons) |
Both sexes |
|
|
|
|
Civilian labor force |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Employed |
94.9 |
95.3 |
94.8 |
95.7 |
Agriculture |
6.2 |
7.1 |
7.7 |
7.8 |
Nonagriculture industries |
88.6 |
88.2 |
87.0 |
86.9 |
Unemployed |
5.1 |
4.7 |
5.2 |
5.3 |
Male |
|
|
|
|
Civilian labor force |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Employed |
95.0 |
95.5 |
94.8 |
94.9 |
Agriculture |
8.4 |
9.0 |
9.8 |
10.1 |
Nonagriculture industries |
86.6 |
86.4 |
85.0 |
84.8 |
Unemployed |
5.0 |
4.5 |
5.2 |
5.0 |
Female |
|
|
|
|
Civilian labor force |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Employed |
94.6 |
95.0 |
94.7 |
94.2 |
Agriculture |
1.8 |
3.2 |
3.5 |
3.1 |
1Excludes cases with employment status not reported.
Table D. Comparison of Published Distributions of Weeks Worked In 1959 for the Census and CPS with Their Respective "Match" Study Distributions, By Sex: 1960
Work experience and sex |
1960 Census |
1960 CPS |
Published data (25-percent sample) |
Census CPS match (matched persons1) |
Published data |
Census CPS match (matched persons) |
Both sexes |
|
|
|
|
Total, 14 years old and over |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Worked in 1959 |
61.3 |
61.4 |
64.0 |
64.2 |
Didi not work in 1959 |
38.7 |
38.6 |
36.0 |
35.8 |
Worked in 1959 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
50 to 52 weeks |
56.8 |
58.0 |
60.4 |
59.8 |
48 to 49 weeks |
5.6 |
5.2 |
3.8 |
3.8 |
40 to 47 weeks |
8.9 |
9.4 |
7.7 |
7.6 |
27 to 39 weeks |
9.3 |
9.1 |
8.5 |
8.5 |
14 to 26 weeks |
8.4 |
7.6 |
8.7 |
8.6 |
13 weeks or less |
11.0 |
10.6 |
10.9 |
11.7 |
Male |
|
|
|
|
Total, 14 years old and over |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Worked in 1959 |
82.0 |
83.0 |
84.1 |
84.9 |
Didi not work in 1959 |
18.0 |
17.0 |
15.9 |
15.1 |
Worked in 1959 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
50 to 52 weeks |
64.9 |
66.6 |
68.8 |
67.9 |
48 to 49 weeks |
5.8 |
5.4 |
3.9 |
3.9 |
40 to 47 weeks |
85. |
9.0 |
7.3 |
7.3 |
27 to 39 weeks |
7.7 |
7.4 |
7.2 |
7.3 |
14 to 26 weeks |
6.0 |
5.3 |
6.1 |
6.2 |
13 weeks or less |
6.9 |
6.2 |
6.6 |
7.4 |
Female |
|
|
|
|
Total, 14 years old and over |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
Worked in 1959 |
41.7 |
41.3 |
45.6 |
45.5 |
Didi not work in 1959 |
58.3 |
58.7 |
54.4 |
54.5 |
Worked in 1959 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
100.0 |
50 to 52 weeks |
41.8 |
41.9 |
46.2 |
46.0 |
48 to 49 weeks |
5.1 |
4.9 |
3.5 |
3.7 |
40 to 47 weeks |
9.6 |
10.2 |
8.3 |
8.1 |
27 to 39 weeks |
12.2 |
12.2 |
10.7 |
10.6 |
14 to 26 weeks |
12.8 |
11.9 |
13.1 |
12.7 |
13 weeks or less |
18.5 |
18.8 |
18.2 |
18.9 |
1Excludes cases not reporting on work experience in 1959 and weeks worked in 1959.
The index of gross shift represents the sum of the cases in a particular category in one enumeration (CPS or census) but not in the other expressed as a percentage of the total cases in that category according to the CPS. Thus, the index of gross shift covers the cases presumably improperly Included or excluded from the category according to the CPS and is a measure of the combined effect of response variability in the census and in the CPS. For comparison the table also shows similar measures for the same employment status categories from the 195*0 match study. A general factor to consider in interpreting the differences between CPS and census data is the time period of enumeration. (See section "Comparability," paragraph on Current Population Survey.) Thus, some proportion of the differences is explained by real changes in status over a period of time.
Table E. Indices of Net and Gross Shift For Matched Persons in Census-CPS "Match" Study, By Employment Status and Sex: 1960 and 1950
(Civilian noninstitutional population)
Employment status and sex |
Index of net shift |
Index of gross shift |
1960 |
1950 |
1960 |
1950 |
Both sexes |
|
|
|
|
Civilian labor force |
-2.6 |
-3.5 |
12.8 |
12.4 |
Employed |
-2.4 |
-2.7 |
13.0 |
12.9 |
Agriculture |
-12.7 |
-10.7 |
45.7 |
33.9 |
Nonagriculture industries |
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
12.7 |
12.7 |
Unemployed |
-6.5 |
-18.3 |
105.5 |
90.8 |
Not in labor force |
+3.6 |
+4.7 |
17.4 |
16.6 |
Male |
|
|
|
|
Civilian labor force |
-2.6 |
-2.2 |
7.2 |
7.2 |
Employed |
-2.6 |
-1.2 |
8.2 |
8.4 |
Agriculture |
-13.6 |
-5.5 |
35.8 |
24.0 |
Nonagriculture industries |
-1.2 |
-0.4 |
8.4 |
9.4 |
Unemployed |
-4.4 |
-18.1 |
92.9 |
80.7 |
Not in labor force |
+11.8 |
+11.5 |
31.2 |
37.5 |
Female |
|
|
|
|
Civilian labor force |
-2.7 |
-6.8 |
24.2 |
25.6 |
Employed |
-2.2 |
-6.2 |
22.8 |
24.2 |
Agriculture |
-7.3 |
-46.4 |
107.7 |
101.6 |
Nonagriculture industries |
-2.0 |
-3.8 |
20.8 |
20.2 |
Unemployed |
-10.3 |
-18.9 |
127.3 |
120.3 |
Not in labor force |
+1.5 |
+3.2 |
13.7 |
11.9 |
NOTE. Excludes cases with employment status not reported.
The indices of net shift show that, in general, the 1960 Census employment status data have lower net shifts or estimates of bias than those observed for 1950. This situation supports the findings stated in the section on "Comparability," which compared published census data with published CPS data. For the civilian labor force, the employed, the unemployed, and those not in the labor force, the indices of net shift in 1960 were lower than in 1950.
Most of the reductions in the indices of net shift occurred among females. In contrast to 1950, the net shifts for women in 1960 were no longer materially greater than those for men. Among the unemployed, the index of net shift fell from 18.3 percent to -6.6 percent, with substantial reductions for both males and females.
Indices of gross shift in 1960 for employment status are about as high as or higher than those in 1950 for most categories. This generalization applies to both males and females. A somewhat different conclusion, however, is reached on the basis of another index, as described below.
Table F presents indices of net and gross shift for weeks worked in 1959 for identical persons from the matched study. Largest relative differences occur in the "40 to 47 weeks" and "48 to 49 weeks" categories for both sexes. Both net and gross shifts for males were lower than those for females in most of the weeks worked categories. This differential is probably due to the predominance of part-time work among females, which results in a greater degree of response variance for this item for females than males.
Table F. Indices of Net and Gross Shift For Matched Persons in Census-CPS "Match" Study, By Weeks Worked In 1959, Color, and Sex: 1960
Weeks worked in 1959 and sex |
Index of net shift |
Index of gross shift |
Total |
White |
Nonwhite |
Total |
White |
Nonwhite |
Both sexes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Worked in 1959 |
-4.4 |
-3.9 |
-9.7 |
12.7 |
11.8 |
21.1 |
50 to 52 weeks |
-9.1 |
-9.0 |
-10.1 |
29.5 |
27.7 |
50.5 |
48 to 49 weeks |
+2.40 |
+28.1 |
-9.3 |
177.6 |
180.3 |
155.6 |
40 to 47 weeks |
+23.2 |
+19.2 |
+60.8 |
146.4 |
143.6 |
172.6 |
27 to 39 weeks |
+.43 |
+4.1 |
+5.9 |
116.0 |
111.9 |
144.7 |
14 to 26 weeks |
-16.4 |
-13.3 |
-35.1 |
102.9 |
100.4 |
118.4 |
13 weeks or less |
-7.3 |
-2.5 |
-34.4 |
96.7 |
96.6 |
97.1 |
Did not worked in 1959 |
+7.9 |
+6.8 |
+21.2 |
22.9 |
20.8 |
46.1 |
Male |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Worked in 1959 |
-2.2 |
-1.7 |
-7.5 |
6.8 |
6.2 |
13.0 |
50 to 52 weeks |
-5.7 |
-6.0 |
-1.4 |
24.8 |
23.4 |
42.6 |
48 to 49 weeks |
+32.9 |
+38.4 |
-16.0 |
189.8 |
194.4 |
148.7 |
40 to 47 weeks |
+21.4 |
+17.9 |
+64.5 |
151.1 |
148.6 |
182.5 |
27 to 39 weeks |
+3.4 |
+1.7 |
+15.4 |
116.9 |
114.7 |
132.6 |
14 to 26 weeks |
-15.3 |
-6.2 |
-56.7 |
107.4 |
106.5 |
111.8 |
13 weeks or less |
-7.3 |
-0.7 |
-44.3 |
106.9 |
106.8 |
107.2 |
Did not worked in 1959 |
+12.5 |
+9.8 |
+33.3 |
38.9 |
36.5 |
58.0 |
Female |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Worked in 1959 |
-8.3 |
-7.7 |
-12.6 |
22.9 |
21.8 |
30.4 |
50 to 52 weeks |
-17.8 |
-16.9 |
-25.6 |
41.6 |
39.1 |
64.7 |
48 to 49 weeks |
+8.9 |
+10.1 |
0.0 |
156.8 |
155.6 |
165.1 |
40 to 47 weeks |
+26.1 |
+21.4 |
+57.5 |
139.1 |
135.5 |
162.9 |
27 to 39 weeks |
+5.4 |
+7.0 |
-5.9 |
114.9 |
108.5 |
159.7 |
14 to 26 weeks |
-17.3 |
-18.5 |
-6.8 |
99.3 |
95.9 |
127.1 |
13 weeks or less |
-7.2 |
-3.6 |
-28.3 |
90.5 |
90.5 |
90.9 |
Did not worked in 1959 |
+6.8 |
+6.0 |
+16.7 |
18.9 |
17.1 |
41.6 |
NOTE.-Excludes cases not reporting on work experience in 1959 and weeks worked in 1959.
Table G presents indices of net and gross shifts for the labor force by age and sex for 1960. Inconsistent reporting appears most serious for the young and old among both males and females. However, job volatility for these groups is quite high; and therefore these rates may be reflecting true changes in job status to some extent. The tenuous nature of their job attachments also makes for great difficulty in consistent reporting.
The index of gross shift shown here has been the traditional measure used in evaluation studies. It was sometimes referred to as simply the gross difference rate, but this term is not used here to avoid confusion with another measure. Recent research in this field has led to the development of an improved index. This measure is called the "index of inconsistency" and is formulated in such a way as to make these estimates of inconsistency of response more comparable from one item to another and from one time to another.
Table G. Indices of Net and Gross Shift For Matched PersonsinCensus-CPS "Match" Study, For the Civilian Labor Force, By Age, Color, and Sex: 1960
(Civilian noninstitutional population)
Age and sex |
Index of net shift |
Index of gross shift |
Total |
White |
Nonwhite |
Total |
White |
Nonwhite |
Total, 14 and over |
-2.7 |
-2.2 |
-7.2 |
12.9 |
11.8 |
22.3 |
14 to 17 years |
-14.2 |
-12.1 |
-33.5 |
59.7 |
56.3 |
92.7 |
18 and 19 years |
-5.1 |
-4.2 |
-12.6 |
21.8 |
18.6 |
50.2 |
20 to 24 years |
-2.7 |
-1.9 |
-9.1 |
11.8 |
10.5 |
21.2 |
25 to 34 years |
-0.3 |
-0.1 |
-2.7 |
8.0 |
7.2 |
14.5 |
35 to 44 years |
-0.6 |
+0.2 |
-7.3 |
7.5 |
6.5 |
16.4 |
45 to 54 years |
-2.0 |
-1.7 |
-1.5 |
8.9 |
8.2 |
16.3 |
55 to 64 years |
-5.8 |
-5.4 |
-10.0 |
12.9 |
12.1 |
22.5 |
65 years and over |
-6.9 |
-5.7 |
-20.5 |
34.8 |
33.7 |
47.5 |
Male, 14 years and over |
-2.6 |
-2.2 |
-7.0 |
7.2 |
6.7 |
12.5 |
14 to 17 years |
-16.5 |
-14.3 |
-36.4 |
48.9 |
45.1 |
83.3 |
18 and 19 years |
-6.4 |
-3.7 |
-23.3 |
18.3 |
15.4 |
35.8 |
20 to 24 years |
-2.5 |
-1.8 |
-7.9 |
7.5 |
6.9 |
11.2 |
25 to 34 years |
-1.0 |
-0.6 |
-5.4 |
2.5 |
2.1 |
6.5 |
35 to 44 years |
-1.0 |
-0.7 |
-4.0 |
2.2 |
1.8 |
5.9 |
45 to 54 years |
-1.0 |
-0.8 |
-2.8 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.8 |
55 to 64 years |
-3.5 |
-3.5 |
-3.3 |
7.8 |
7.6 |
10.7 |
65 years and over |
-9.1 |
-8.8 |
-13.5 |
28.2 |
28.2 |
38.1 |
Female, 14 years and over |
-2.7 |
-2.0 |
-7.5 |
24.3 |
22.5 |
37.2 |
14 to 17 years |
-9.4 |
-7.7 |
-26.8 |
81.7 |
78.6 |
114.0 |
18 and 19 years |
-3.4 |
-4.8 |
+22.9 |
25.9 |
22.1 |
97.9 |
20 to 24 years |
-3.0 |
-2.0 |
-10.9 |
18.5 |
16.0 |
37.1 |
25 to 34 years |
+1.3 |
+1.3 |
+1.4 |
21.5 |
20.6 |
26.3 |
35 to 44 years |
+0.3 |
+2.2 |
-11.6 |
19.0 |
17.2 |
30.3 |
45 to 54 years |
-2.9 |
-3.3 |
+0.4 |
19.7 |
17.9 |
35.2 |
55 to 64 years |
-10.7 |
-9.6 |
-20.4 |
23.9 |
22.0 |
40.9 |
65 years and over |
-1.5 |
+1.8 |
-32.6 |
48.9 |
47.3 |
64.0 |
NOTE. Excludes cases with employment status not reported.
If the entries off the main diagonal in a 2 x 2 table, i.e., the cases in a particular category in one enumeration (CPS or census) but not in the other, are identified as d, the sum of all entries in the table as n (the universe), the proportion having the characteristic in the census as p, then the index of inconsistency can be defined as
The p (1-p) in the denominator of I is taken from the census because most of the response variability arises in the census.
Illustration: Table H presents the index of inconsistency for the labor force items from the 1950 and 1960 Censuses and indicates differences in the respective indexes of inconsistency, most of which are about the same although they are slightly favorable to the 1960 Census.
Table H. Index of Inconsistency for Matched Persons in Census- CPS "Match" Study, By Employment Status and Sex: 1960 and 1950
(Minus sign (-) indicates greater unreliability in 1960 Census than, in 1950 Census; plus sign (+) indicates greater unreliability in 1950 Census)
Employment status and sex |
Index of inconstistency (I) |
Difference |
1960 |
1950 |
Male |
|
|
|
Civilian labor force |
.18 |
.21 |
+.03 |
Employed |
.17 |
.20 |
+.03 |
Agriculture |
.22 |
.14 |
-.08 |
nonagriculture industries |
.13 |
.14 |
+.01 |
Unemployed |
.50 |
.51 |
+.01 |
Not in labor force |
.18 |
.21 |
+.03 |
Female |
|
|
|
Civilian labor force |
.19 |
.19 |
… |
Employed |
.17 |
.18 |
… |
Agriculture |
.59 |
.96 |
+.36 |
nonagriculture industries |
.16 |
.14 |
-.01 |
Unemployed |
.72 |
.75 |
+.03 |
Not in labor force |
.18 |
.19 |
… |