The dust has settled on the 2024 election, and while the narrowness of the popular vote makes for a headline, the county-level data paints a more complex picture. Social Explorer’s analysis reveals that the breadth of county-level support for Donald Trump obscures the tight margins in the popular vote. By examining voter demographics and trends across over 3,100 U.S. counties, we see a story of nuanced patterns that follow fairly predictable yet significant shifts in recent electoral behavior.

Popular Vote vs. County-Level Support

Supporters of President-elect Donald Trump have claimed a landslide victory, but when viewed through the lens of the popular vote, this claim seems less convincing. Trump secured 50 percent of the ballots cast—slightly fewer than 77 million—while Vice President Kamala Harris garnered 48.4 percent of the vote, or just over 74.3 million ballots. This puts the results well within the margin of error, suggesting a deeply divided electorate.

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Figure 1: Total Population: 18 to 34 Years, Total Population: 35 to 64 Years, Total Population: 65 and Over. ACS 2022 (5-Year Estimates).

However, when looking at county-level results, the claims of a landslide appear more substantial. Of the 3,113 counties for which demographic and voting data were available, Trump won 2,642 counties, representing 84.9 percent of all counties analyzed. Harris, in contrast, managed to win in just 15 percent of counties, suggesting that while the race was close in sheer number of votes, the geographic distribution of support was significantly in Trump’s favor.

Demographics and Voting Behavior: Not Always Predictable

Demographics, as always, play a crucial role in understanding voting trends, but they don’t tell the whole story. The relationship between demographic groups and vote totals was complex, with some trends aligning predictably with previous elections and others deviating in unexpected ways. For instance, according to exit polls, voters between the ages of 18 and 29 leaned slightly towards Trump, with a 49 to 47 percent margin. Older men—those aged 65 and above—supported Trump with a 55-44 percent margin.

Despite these patterns, the data suggests that Trump might have underperformed in certain areas when compared to demographic expectations. The 2018-2022 American Community Survey shows that young men between the ages of 18 and 24 made up roughly 4.6 percent of the population in the counties reviewed. Trump won 816 of the 1,059 counties (77.1 percent) where young men made up more than the national average. However, this figure suggests there were pockets where his support lagged behind what demographic data might have predicted.

Similarly, Trump captured 73.2 percent of counties (815 of 1,113) where young women between the ages of 18 and 24 comprised more than 4.1 percent of the population, despite exit polls indicating that young women favored Harris by a significant 61 to 37 percent margin. This disparity between expected and actual support highlights the complexities in voter behavior that extend beyond demographic stereotypes.

Middle-Aged and Older Voter Trends

Where Trump did perform strongly, as expected, was among middle-aged and older voters. In the 1,338 counties where men aged 25 to 64 made up more than the average 25.4 percent of the population, Trump won 1,111 counties—an impressive 83 percent share. Among middle-aged women, he won 1,376 of the 1,712 counties (80.4 percent) where their share exceeded 24.2 percent. This strong performance among middle-aged voters aligned closely with past elections, suggesting that this demographic remains a core base of Republican support.

Trump’s largest margin of victory came among older Americans. Exit polls showed that 55 percent of men aged 65 and older voted for Trump, while only 44 percent of older women did the same. The American Community Survey highlighted an even larger gap: Trump won 93.1 percent of counties (1,298 of 1,394) where older men made up a greater-than-average percentage of the population. For counties where older women were more prominent, Trump won 91.4 percent (1,352 of 1,480 counties). These numbers underscore Trump’s continuing appeal among older voters, particularly older men, and suggest that age remains a key determinant in voting preferences.

The Broader Implications

The 2024 election reveals more than just a winner—it paints a picture of an electorate divided not just by ideology but by geography, demographics, and economic circumstances. Trump’s broad county-level support contrasted with the narrow margin in the popular vote illustrates the growing divide between urban and rural America, and between different age and gender groups.

Urban areas, which typically house larger, more diverse populations, tended to support Harris, while rural counties overwhelmingly backed Trump. This pattern aligns with previous elections but seems to be intensifying. Rural voters, who may feel left behind by economic shifts and cultural changes, showed strong support for Trump’s message of economic revitalization and traditional values. On the other hand, urban and suburban areas, which have seen younger and more diverse populations move in, leaned more toward Harris, reflecting a preference for progressive policies and social reforms.

The challenge for future candidates will be bridging these divides. How can political leaders address the needs of economically struggling rural communities while also appealing to the aspirations of younger, urban voters? The answer lies in understanding the data behind the electorate—not just the headlines, but the deeper trends that shape voter behavior.

Looking Forward

As we look ahead, it’s clear that data will continue to play a pivotal role in shaping electoral strategies and outcomes. The insights provided by Social Explorer help us see beyond the vote totals and into the real dynamics of the electorate: where voters live, how they think, and what issues matter most to them. For policymakers, campaigners, and analysts, understanding these trends is crucial for crafting messages that resonate, for addressing the concerns of all Americans, and for ultimately creating a more unified country.

At Social Explorer, we remain committed to providing the data and insights needed to navigate these complex political landscapes. The story of this election is not just about who won or lost—it’s about understanding the changing face of America and the forces driving those changes.